Orioles scenarios

Either the Baltimore Orioles or the NY Yankees will win the AL East division and the other team will win a Wild Card spot. The O’s enter today back by one game and tied with the Rangers and A’s, who play each other.
  • The NY Yankees clinch the division if they beat Boston OR Baltimore loses to Tampa Bay. Either outcome clinches the division for N.Y.
  • The NY Yankees can also clinch home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, and would face the Wild Card team in the ALDS, if they beat Boston, OR Baltimore loses to Tampa Bay AND Texas beats Oakland. If the Yankees lose, both Baltimore AND Oakland must also lose for the Yankees to clinch; the Yankees hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rangers by virtue of winning their season series, 4-3.
  • If Baltimore beats Tampa Bay AND the NY Yankees lose to Boston, then the Orioles would host N.Y. in a tiebreaker game on Thursday, October 4, at a time TBD. The winner would be the AL East champion and the loser would play in the AL Wild Card Game.
  • Baltimore cannot secure home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, because even if they win the AL East, both Texas (5-2) and Oakland (5-4) hold the tiebreaker over them by virtue of winning their head-to-head season series. Whatever happens in a potential Game 163 tiebreaker does not count toward seeding for the playoffs.
  • So, if the Yankees win AND the Orioles lose tonight, the O’s would go on the road to the loser of tonight’s Texas/Oakland game for a Wild Card game on Friday. If the Yankees and Orioles both win, the Yanks would win the division and the Orioles would host Friday’s Wild Card game versus the loser of Oakland/Texas.


It’s simple for the O’s: win tonight in St. Pete and get at least one home game guaranteed; lose and you’re on the way to Texas or Oakland.

“Baltimore cannot secure home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, because even if they win the AL East, both Texas (5-2) and Oakland (5-4) hold the tiebreaker over them by virtue of winning their head-to-head season series.”

But if the Orioles win the AL East, their record would be 95-68 (based on 163 games), which would be a better winning percentage than either Texas or Oakland at 94-68. Doesn’t that secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs?

I’m double checking.

No, whatever happens in a tiebreaker game does not count toward seeding.

What would be the possible pitchers that the O’s could roll out there if Steve Johnson’s knee isn’t ready and we had to play Thursday and Friday? Would they play Saunders on short rest for Thursday’s game?

No, whatever happens in a tiebreaker game does not count toward seeding.
By Britt Ghiroli on October 3, 2012 10:18 AM – Reply

What is your source for this? I’m getting conflicting answers…

Ken says the tiebreaker game does count… he could be wrong, but I’ve yet to see anything official on this:


Meh. Ken just updated his article and removed the portion about the O’s still having a shot at #1 seed with divisional tiebreaker win.

Yes. I am correct.

but when you think about, it’s ALMOST in the O’s best interest to lose the tie-breaker game. as the winner will have to head to Detroit for 2 games against some of the best pitchers in baseball. If the O’s lose the tiebreaker game, they get to host the WC game against either the slumping Rangers or huge-let down A’s, then, if they win that game, they get to HOST the other team – so it becomes like a 4-game home stand for the Birds.

Not sure that’s sound logic. I’m not crazy about facing Verlander, but I’d much rather force the Tigers to win 3 games, at least one of which has to be in Baltimore, than leave the O’s fate up to a one-game, win-or-go-home situation against the gauntlet that is the Rangers’ lineup (especially with a lefty on the mound in Saunders against their right-handed heavy lineup) or the A’s 6th ranked pitching staff.

totally agree, that’s why I said ALMOST….. just looking at the positive of not winning the division, that’s all…

Going to have to beat Detroit either way to get to the World Series

You have to get out there and believe you can beat anyone. Those are the teams that win the World Series. One day at a time. Win the next game. Don’t worry about everyone else.

Basically if the O’s win tonight, they will either have a one game divisional playoff at home or a one game wildcard playoff at home, depending on how the Yankees do, yes?

Any updates on the injuries to Steve Johnson and Hammel or what the starting roation would look like after Tillman pitches tonight? Who would be up to start tomorrow night?

I’ll answer for her since I’m sure she’s tired of this question. No one knows who will start tomorrow night. Or at least no one reading this.

It could be Johnson, depending on his injury status, which has not been updated with specifics.

It could be Arrieta, Britton or Hunter, simply because they all have started before and are on the roster.

it will not be Hammel. Showalter has said Hammel will not be available before Saturday, at the earliest.

Most likely, Saunders starts Friday in the WC game if there is one, because he is the only regular starter on normal rest at that point.

As for the rest of the postseason, assuming the O’s make it beyond Friday, the Game 1 Starter could be anyone not named Tillman or Saunders as they would be the only starters on short rest. Unless the O’s win the division and play Game 1 Saturday, then you can add Gonzalez to the list of unavailable starters.

And now with Johnson throwing a bullpen today it looks like he’s no longer an option for tomorrow. So it’s likely down to Arrieta, Britton or Hunter. I’d guess Arrieta. He’s been much, much better than Britton against NYY (3.50ish ERA compared to 18.00), and I don’t really think Hunter should even be considered.

Pingback: Orioles @ Rays – regular season finale « Britt's Bird Watch

MLB is idiotic. The rules clearly state: Best record in the league gets the #1 seed. It doesn’t say “Best record after 162 games”. Thus, the best record after 163 games should still get the #1 seed. If not, then don’t count it as a regular season game! Count it as a playoff game. It’s that simple.

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