Thoughts on the Guthrie trade

I’ve gotten a lot of questions on the Jeremy Guthrie trade today, and whether it was worth acquiring Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom or not. I’m not going to tell you what to think, or change the minds of people who are happy, mad or indifferent, but here’s my two cents…

*If what executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette said on today’s conference call is true, that the Orioles weren’t offered top prospects for Guthrie, it changes how I feel about the return a little bit for the better.  Like a lot of people, I was initially mystified, particularly given the rotation’s uncertainty beyond Guthrie. Why trade away the only guy you know can give you innings?

I think for Duquette, the possibility of paying Guthrie more than $10 million if they lost in arbitration was something he didn’t want to do and something that could really cripple Guthrie’s trade value moving forward in the 2012 season.

Hammel and Lindstrom don’t have eye-popping numbers but 1) neither does Guthrie and 2) they pitch half their games at the incredibly hitter-friendly, high altitude Coors Field.  And before I get a slew of emails, I’m not saying the AL East is a picnic, either.

Yes, there were a lot of teams interested in Guthrie, but if you aren’t going to get prospects you have to try to get the best available talent to help your team. And what do the Orioles need? Pitching, pitching, pitching. (And that free agent market is pretty much picked over at this point.)

*Seems  a big factor in the deal was that Guthrie was a free agent after 2012, while the Orioles can hang on to both Hammel and Lindstrom for 2013. So it was a 2-for-1 swap that also gives them some options in the future. Are they the best options imaginable? No.

But Duquette is taking a “strength in numbers” approach with the pitching staff this season, and it will  be interesting to see how it works out. Trading away Guthrie removes the crutch of having a guy who can save the bullpen every five days. Hammel has pitched at least 170 innings the last three seasons, so he’s no Guthrie, but he can be relied on to at least get fairly deep into games.

*It’s pretty clear to me that the Orioles’ message to the young arms is to step up and win a job. There won’t be any handouts and the hope has to be that Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton respond with great springs.  Tommy Hunter should be able to contribute innings, he was last year despite a nagging groin injury, and I’d pencil him in as a pretty solid chance of getting a rotation spot. If you have Hunter and Hammel and two of those three young guys step up with Wei-Yin Chen, it’s not a terrible Opening Day rotation. But, again, it depends on the development of those young arms and how all this competition shakes out.

Guthrie wasn’t a part of the organization’s future, so now it’s sink or swim for some of these other young guys. If you don’t see development by some of the young arms, Duquette’s going to have to decide what direction this club is heading.

*I  do like the Lindstrom addition because it creates options for manager Buck Showalter late in the game. How many times last year did you see Jim Johnson pitching three days in a row? Because he was basically the only reliable late-inning arm. Johnson, with Lindstrom, should help things, and I’m also curious to get a longer look at Pedro Strop.

This move could also mean, for Kevin Gregg’s critics, that Showalter could use Johnson in a closer role and Lindstrom in a setup one if Gregg can’t rebound from a tough 2011. Or vice versa.  But the good thing is, there is depth at the closer spot.

*For those bemoaning this being a money deal, stop. Yes, the Orioles didn’t want to pay over $10 million to Guthrie in arbitration. But when you factor in the $8.2 million he settled on in Colorado, and the Orioles taking on Hammels and Lindstrom’s salaries, it’s about even.  This seemed to be more about moving Guthrie before arbitration and getting players back under team control.

*Is it too early to judge the trade? Of course. And I can’t say I’m an immediate fan of it. But if Hammel can prove to be a dependable arm and hit that 175 IP mark, than the Orioles essentially gained a late-inning arm in Lindstrom, who also have closing experience.

Someone needs to step up in that rotation this year and take on Guthrie’s workload.  I don’t think it’s Hammel –who will cushion some of that blow — but it has to be done if the Orioles are going to have any shot of being competitive. They’ve easily got 8 or 9 rotation candidates; can they find 5 viable ones?

*On a more personal note, I wish Jeremy Guthrie all the best in Colorado. He was one of the most outgoing Orioles and could be one of the best quotes in that clubhouse if you got him on a subject he liked. I know he truly enjoyed interacting with fans here in Baltimore as well.

It’s not always easy to stand at your locker after taking loss after loss, but Guthrie still did it, even on days when he never deserved a defeat.  His work ethic and attention to conditioning should also be commended as well as his vocal support for helping to save our planet.  Good luck, Jeremy.